Impact of natural disasters in economic and environmental vulnerability of Nepal

Abstract

Introduction and Objectives: The EVI index of Nepal has been persistently achieved since 2015 triennial review of UN CDP. But natural disasters in Nepal especially water induced and other season based natural calamities have been damaged human life and property severely on regular interval. So, thesis set the objectives as to discover the impact of such disasters on EVI index. Methodology: The research design is descriptive, correlational and explanatory in nature and before only study design has been deployed. Time series data have been taken in between 1971 to 2021 and its analysis is based on both descriptive and inferential-GLS and VAR (1). Private house damaged (PHD) (including cowshed) has been used as a shock of natural disasters on environmental vulnerability index. As such, Affected Families (AF) has been used as a shock of natural disasters on economic vulnerability index. Results: The GLS shows that when 10 private houses damaged, about 9 families will be affected. This rise an interesting question as why has Nepal been meeting EVI criteria? The granger causality of VAR (1) shows AF does not impact on AffG and ExpG. The impulse response functions show that there is a positive association of AffG and AF in the short run but not such relation in the long term. As such, there is negative relation between AF and ExpG in the short run but not such relation in the long term. Likewise, variance decomposition tests show that AffG is not statistically vulnerable on the basis of AF and its own past values in both short and long run evidence and ExpG is not statistically vulnerable on the basis of AF and its own past values in both short and long run time horizon. Conclusion: It is inferred that natural disasters significantly affect human beings and property, so, environment of Nepal is vulnerable. However, economic indexes are not vulnerable in terms of season based natural disasters and their own past values. Keywords: LDC-graduation, Natural-disasters, EVI, GLS, VAR