Investigation of Meteorological condition during air dynasty Helicopter crash using WRF model

Abstract

Mountain flight remains a considerable challenge in Nepal because of rugged terrain. Since 1979 A.D, there have been 36 helicopter accidents over different parts of the country that have claimed 85 lives. Most of the accidents are reported to have unfavorable weather conditions as the main cause. However, the detailed meteorological analysis for most of the accidents has not been done yet. A detailed understanding of the meteorological condition and reliable forecast that may developed over the complex terrain of the mid-hills of Eastern Nepal Himalaya is yet to be achieved. This study assesses the weather conditions possibly associated with the most recent fatal crash at Pathivara Peak on 27 February 2019 using Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model. Prevailing weather condition during accident time such as; low ceiling with cloud base, light to moderate snowfall, poor visibility, below freezing temperature, high amount of water droplets suggests possible icing on rotor. Icing could be major factor responsible for the fatal crash. WRF-ARW was reasonably able to simulate the weather condition. This research recommended that aviation stakeholders and pilots should fly only after a clear route forecast over the complex geographical condition for the safety of flights. Keywords: Aviation, Forecast, Icing, Visibility, WRF-ARW