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Title: Philippine Business Cycle Characterization: Christiano-Fitzgerald Band Pass Filter Reassessment
Authors: ADB; De Gorostiza, Gilliane Angela B.; Asuncion, Ruben Carlo; Chongvilaivan, Aekapol
Issue Date: Aug-2019
Description: This study assesses the duration, amplitude, and slope of business cycles in the Philippines for the period 2003–2017. It looks at the characteristics of these cycles in terms of volatility, co-movement, and persistence. The study finds that broad money supply and investment are the most volatile macroeconomic variables while private consumption exhibits the least volatility. Inflation reveals low volatility, which is attributed to the central bank’s inflation-targeting policy. Private consumption has the highest co-movement among the observed variables, while broad money has the least. The study also confirms that business cycle expansion phases are more rapid than contractions in the Philippines.
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