Residential Sector Energy Demand and Scenario Analysis for Province One of Nepal

Abstract

A reliable future energy demand projection is a prerequisite condition for sustainable utilization of local energy resources of a nation. The purpose of this study is to project and analyze the long term energy demand in residential sector of Province One. In this study, the residential sector is disaggregated into physiographic region and each region is divided into rural and urban area and into end use fuel type. Primary data was used for base year analysis and a Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) model was used to calculate an energy demand and perform scenario analysis of the Residential sector of Province One over the period 2019-2030. Four scenarios were developed, Business as usual (BAU) scenario, LPG substitution scenario, Improved Cooking Stove (ICS) scenario and Sustainable Energy Development Scenario (SEDS). The study shows that in the BAU scenario, the final energy demand of the residential sector of Province One is expected to increase from 30.5 PJ (Peta Joule) to 34.6 PJ, whereas in the sustainable energy development scenario, the final energy demand is expected to be 12.6 PJ such that the electricity demand increases from 1.8 PJ to 9.4 PJ by 2030. The electricity consumption per capita in residential sector increases from 99 kWh to 449.2 kWh in the year 2030 in SEDS scenario. In BAU scenario, the GHG emission increases to 534 kt (kiloton) of CO2 equivalent from 462 kt of CO2 equivalent in 2030 in SEDS scenario, the GHG emission drops to 56 kt of CO2 equivalent. The study also shows that electricity consumption per capita in residential sector increase to 292 kWh in 2030 if LPG is substituted with electricity resulting to higher consumption of electrical power thus enhancing the energy security of nation. However, above results can only be achieved with the coordinated action of both provincial and federal government and promoting renewable energy systems and energy efficient technologies instead of traditional fuel woods and fossil fuels systems.