Statistics

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Browsing Statistics by TU Institute "Central Department of Statistics"

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    Determinants of Primary school dropout in Chitwan and Nawalparasi
    (Faculty of Statistics, 2012) Manandhar, Naresh
    Nepal’s school education is structured as early childhood development (ECD)/ pre-primary level (PPC), primary level, lower secondary, secondary and higher secondary education.Primary level provides five years of education to the 5-9 years of school-going age children andconsists of five grades I-V.The primary school dropout is defined as “any student who leaves school for any reason before graduation or completion of a program of studies without transferring to another elementary or secondary school.” The objective of research is to find out the causes of dropout in primary schools of the study districts. The null hypotheses based on objectives are there is no significant difference between the primary school dropout children of boys and girls,at various grades andgovernment andprivate school. A cross-sectional tracer design study was conducted in 30 sampled schools of Chitwanand Nawalparasi districts.The pre-designed questionnaire was used for interview method tocollect information about dropout and studying children from one of the parent. The interviewed were taken from one of parents of 101 and 109 actual dropout children respectively from Chitwan and Nawalparasi districts.To fit the logistic regression model,250 parents of studying children were selected by using stratified random sampling and the interviews were taken. The highest actual dropout rate was found to be 6.69 percent in grade I and followed by5.24percent, 3.66 percent, 2.48 percent and 3.66 percent in grades II, III, IV and V respectively.The dropout rate for girl (4.04%) was less than boys (4.50%). The boys (52.6%) were more dropped out than girls (47.6%).The overall primary school dropout rate was found to be 4.26 percent in these study districts. The mean age of primary school dropout children is 8.74 years with standard deviation of 2.021 years.Dalit caste comprised of around 30.5 percent of dropped out children and they have higher chances of dropped out. The majority (73.3%) of dropout children were found to be Hindu by religion followed by Buddhist (21.4%) and Muslim and others (5.2%).The maximum (42.2%) of the actual dropout was due to illiteracy and negligenceof parents in the education of their children. Other causes of dropout were household work(38.5%) and poor economic status of parents (26.6%). Education status of the father plays animportant role in children education and if he is illiterate the chances of dropout is very high. Fromlogistic regression analysis of child related variables, grade, age and work at homewere found to be significant variable and among family related variables, parent’s apathy towards their children education, education status of father, education status of mother,occupation status of father and number of children in family were found to be significant. Government of Nepal should make the provision of automatic upgradation at primary grades so that any child will not dropout due to failure in examination or repetition. Decreasingthe dropout rate requires attraction for dropped out children,active participation of parents, local communities and government working in conjunction with one another.
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    The Impact of Socio-Economic and Demographic Variables on Maternal Health Behavior: A Statistical Approach
    (Department of Statistics, 2014) Shrestha, Gauri
    Available with full text
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    Impacts of Pilgrimage Tourism for Sustainable Tourism Development: Special Focus on Lumbini
    (Faculty of Statistics, 2013) Ghimire, Him Lal
    The history of modern tourism is not as old as pilgrimage tourism- the oldest concept or original art of traveling. Pilgrimage to the sacred and holy sites induced modern tourism. The origin and evolution of the tirtha yatra(pilgrimage) tradition of Hindus seems to be as old as their civilizationor perhaps older than that. Nepal has become a decent destination for pilgrimage tourism with her large number of Hindu and Buddhist pilgrimage sites, shrines and temples. However, the stakeholders were not able to address the importance of Lumbini and develop in a professional ways. Today, Lumbini can be considered as a synonym of world peace center and a top class pilgrimage destination in the world. Lumbini Master Plan was a very ambitious plan for the overall development of Lumbini. However, the incompletion of the plan on time has been a great problem to develop tourism in Lumbini. Tourist arrivals in Lumbini has been fluctuated and affected by several reasons. Mega events in Lumbini have been helping to attract more tourists and enhance the Lumbini's status in the international market. Majority of the tourist visit Lumbini in a group. However, usually larger group of tourists/pilgrims make very short visit in Lumbini when they come via India. They are same day visitors and if Nepal can stop them at least for one day, it will have great impact in economy and employment. Beside pilgrimage purpose, Lumbini can be the attractive destination for the extra- religious activities such as sightseeing, cultural, historical. Nepal's share was very negligible with(0.06%) in tourist arrival in the world total in 2010.It is crucial to obtain accurate estimates of the uncertainty surrounding monthly international tourist arrivals based on time series data. The data series were analyzed in terms of the number of tourist arrivals, the corresponding logarithms, annual differences and log-differences in this research. It was argued that the preferred series to model the monthly tourist arrivals was one which has a distribution closer to a normal distribution. The monthly tourist arrivals levels depictedvery high coefficient of variation (CV) for the 11 tourist source countries. Likewise, monthly tourist arrivals to Nepal showed very strong seasonal patterns. Estimates of the conditional mean for the GARCH(1, 1) model for the level, logarithm, annual difference and log difference were obtained through a modeling procedure in which only significant variables were included until a parsimonious specification is achieved. The ten years armed conflict of Nepal (1997-2006)made clear that the devastatingimpacts such as loss of lives,damage of infrastructure, loss of livelihoods and an uncertainfuture in Nepal.After 2006 movement and peace process also did not solve the problem of continuous instability, and poor security situation of the country which has been affecting tourism badly. 10 th national plan for tourism development had expected US $ 60 per touristper day income from tourists in 2006 where as the data shows US $ 55.0 per tourist per day in reality in 2006. The datashows that income per tourist per day is US$ 43.2, gross foreign currency earning in convertible currency is US$ 329.98 millions and length of stay is 12.67 days. Increase in per day income and length of stay can contribute significantly in economy and employment. This research demonstrates that Lumbini is the world top class destination, its development and sustainability can worth a lot economically for the country like Nepal. In a time of increasing competition and uncertainty in the tourism, stakeholders should explore many different avenues for sustainability within the sector.
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    Nutritional Status among Under Five Children and Their Mothers with Gender Perspective
    (Central Department of Statistics, 2012) Pradhan, Amita
    Survey results since 1975 in Nepal do not ascertain favorable situation of nutrition among children under five years of age as indicated by the percent of children with stunting, wasting and underweight. National Family Health Survey (NFHS), 1996 revealed that 54.8% were stunted, 12.7% were wasted and 54.2% were underweight. Nepal Micronutrient Status Survey, 1998 displayed that 54% of children in Nepal were stunted and 47% underweight. The first national nutritional survey in 1975 also exhibited similar findings of 48.1% stunted, 2.8% wasted and 50% underweight. The data suggest that there is no enhancement in the nutritional status in the country during this time span. Nepal Demographic and Health Survey 2001 revealed the percent prevalence for underweight and wasted children of under five years of age as 48.3% and 9.6% and about 50% of these children showed stunting. Similarly, NDHS 2006 reveals that the percent prevalence for underweight and wasted children of under five years of age are 39% and 13%. Forty nine percent of the children under five years of age are stunted. To overcome the problem of malnutrition, the factors associated with nutrition needs to be studied. Many studies show that wealth status of household, size of the child at the birth, educational status of mothers and mother’s autonomy are related with her own and her child’s nutrition. This study was intended to determine percent prevalence of nutritional status as indicated by percent of normal children and percent of underweight, stunted and wasted children as well as percent of mothers with normal and low body mass index. This study also tried to explore the factors associated with nutrition among children under five years of age and the mothers. There are many indicators of gender status and while analyzing the data, some of the variables related to status of women such as woman’s educational status, employment status, working hour per day, decision making ability, contraceptive use and media exposure etc. were tried to link with nutrition of children and women themselves. This was an observational study carried out in Kathmandu district. This study also used the secondary data of Nepal Demographic and Health Survey, 2006 for the enrichment of the scope of the study to whole Nepal. The primary data were collected from Kathmandu district. The proportional allocation of households from different VDCs and municipalities was insured. The households were selected by spinning a bottle at different junctions in survey area. The sample size calculated was 454 children. The primary data was collected by interviewing the mothers. The anthropometry for under-5 years and their mothers were collected by using weighing machine, Sakir’s tape and measuring tape. STATA 9, PHSTAT2, Growth analyzer 3.5, Epi Info 2000, Microsoft Excel 2007, SPSS 13 and SPSS 17 were used for analysis. Necessary tables, chi square test (exact test where applicable),z test for proportion, Kruskal Wallis test, ANOVA, ordinal regression, MANCOVA, LMS method for smoothing growth centile curve and chi square test of goodness of fit were used in the process of data analysis. The percent of children with stunting, underweight and wasting was found as 58.8%, 34.4% and 14.6% respectively as per present study. Ordinal regression came out as suitable method for nutrition data. Wherever required assumption for ordinal regression failed, partial proportional odds model was a good substitute. Alternative gamma parameterization results were observed in line to partial proportional odds model. MANOVA analysis could not hold required assumption in this data set. Household wealth, area of residence, size at birth, education of mothers was found to impact the nutrition of children. Moreover, employment status of the mothers showed effects on child’s height. Furthermore, mothers’ exposure to mass media emerged as significant predictor for underweight. Female children showed substantial risk of being underweight. Likewise, exclusive breastfeeding resulted into better MUAC facet. Media exposure showed positive blow on nutrition of women and higher number of children to the woman indicated negative agreement with her BMI. The growth charts did not resemble marked gender differences in its mold. The fiftieth centile comparison with CDC 2000 charts indicated lower height for age assessment for NDHS and Kathmandu data. Overlapping fiftieth centiles of Kathmandu with CDC 2000 charts which were elevated than NDHS were observed for weight for age. Looking at these insights, it could be concluded that at one hand wealth status of the household was important in defining the nutrition of the children and at the other hand size of the child at birth and education of the mothers, employment status of the mothers played effective role. Here the important notion is that size at birth is linked with mother’s nutrition during pregnancy. Employment and education may contribute to gain autonomy among the mothers which would be reflecting in household resource allocation resulting into more allocation in nutritious food. Key words: BMI, Nutrition, Height for Age, Weight for Age, Weight for Height