CLIMATE, LAND, ENERGY AND WATER SYSTEM NEXUS OPTIMIZATION MODELLING FOR NEPAL

Abstract

This thesis examines the impact of the increasing global demand for power on greenhouse gas emissions, water usage, and hydropower production in Nepal. The study projects that by 2050, the country will need to generate 9 GW of power, which can be mostly fulfilled by hydropower. However, this increase in power production will result in a significant rise in CO2 emissions, particularly from the transport and biomass sectors. To mitigate the impact of this growth, the study recommends improving irrigated farming and forest conservation. The implementation of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) can also contribute to reducing CO2 emissions and increasing hydropower production. Under NDC scenario, the equivalent gross energy demand decreases by 135 PJ by 2030 whereas the power production rises by 3.5 GW including hydro and solar. Similarly, the import of fossil fuel will reduce by 40 PJ by 2030 and 400 PJ by 2050 A.D. The study further recommends adopting a sustainable nexus approach to energy planning, with a focus on land, water, and climate. It also suggests adopting subsidies for electric cooking and vehicles to increase electricity demand. Finally, the study recommends modeling for land energy and crop trade to ensure trade and food security and exploring the potential for electricity export.