Scenario Analysis on Energy Transition & Energy Security: A Case Study on Madhesh Province of Nepal

Abstract

The paper has taken Madhesh province as the area of study and it presents the study of energy demand emission analysis along with the energy security state of the province. The Government's Net-zero targets had been taken into account to create the scenarios where the overview of the province-level energy security indicators is calculated in the time frame taking 2019 as the base year and 2050 as the final year of analysis. The energy demand and emission of different sectors of Madhesh province are compared in the different scenarios and their impact on the energy security indicators are compared. The elasticity of the different sectors based on GDP is used to determine the baseline scenario of the study which is then compared with the Government scenario to observe fuel savings and reduction of import of fuel can be seen. The energy intensity in the base year is 16.2 GJ/$1000. In the baseline scenario, it is projected to decrease by 55.06% by 2050. In the intervention scenarios, the decrease is even more significant, with a reduction of 66.88% in the NZE scenario and 71.02% in the NZA scenario by 2050, compared to the baseline scenario. On the other hand, the electricity consumption per capita was 308.2 kWh/capita in the baseline scenario, and it is expected to reach 691.4 Kwh/capita by 2050 in the baseline scenario. In the NZE scenario, it is projected to increase 1291.2 Kwh/capita, and in the NZA scenario, it is expected to increase 2693.4 Kwh/capita by 2050, compared to the baseline scenario.