Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://elibrary.tucl.edu.np/handle/123456789/21003
Title: | Energy Demand Modelling and Emission Forecasting for the Penetration of E-mobility in Sudurpaschim Province |
Authors: | PAL, SURAKSHA |
Keywords: | Energy demand,;Emission forecasting,;LEAP modeling |
Issue Date: | Nov-2023 |
Publisher: | I.O.E. Pulchowk Campus |
Institute Name: | Institute of Engineering |
Level: | Masters |
Abstract: | This thesis paper focuses on the development of future energy demand and emissions projections for the road transport sector in Sudurpaschim Province of Nepal, spanning from 2022 to 2050. This analysis utilizes the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) modeling framework and explores three distinct policy strategies: Business As Usual (BAU), Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Scenario and Long Term Strategy (LTS) Scenario. In 2022, passenger travel demand stood at 3.89 billion passenger kilometers, but it is anticipated to surge to more than 11.77 billion passenger-kilometers by 2050. Similarly, freight transport demand is expected to grow from 1.84 billion ton-kilometers in 2022 to 3.25 billion ton-kilometers by 2050. To meet these escalating transportation demands, the total final energy consumption (TFES) must increase from 2.59 PJ to 7.34 PJ, primarily relying on imported fossil fuels, with an annual growth rate of 3.78% from 2022 to 2050 under a business-as-usual scenario. During this period, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are projected to rise from 111.7 thousand MT of CO2 equivalent to in 2022 to 258.8 thousand MT of CO2 equivalent by 2050, representing a 3.41% annual growth rate. However, under the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario, the total final energy consumption (TFES) must increase from 2.59 PJ to 3.7 PJ, primarily relying on electricity as a major fuel, with an annual growth rate of 1.32% from 2022 to 2050 |
Description: | This thesis paper focuses on the development of future energy demand and emissions projections for the road transport sector in Sudurpaschim Province of Nepal, spanning from 2022 to 2050. This analysis utilizes the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) modeling framework and explores three distinct policy strategies: Business As Usual (BAU), Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Scenario and Long Term Strategy (LTS) Scenario. |
URI: | https://elibrary.tucl.edu.np/handle/123456789/21003 |
Appears in Collections: | Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering |
Files in This Item:
File | Description | Size | Format | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Suraksha Pal Master thesis mechanical and aero renewable energy Nov 2023.pdf | 4.46 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.