Fiscal Space and Increasing Fiscal Resilience
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This paper compares fiscal cyclicality across advanced and developing economies in terms of geography and income levels between 1960 and 2016.
It identifies factors that explain government spending and tax-policy cyclicality. On average, a more indebted government spends more in good times and cuts back spending indifferently compared with low-debt economies in bad times. The sovereign wealth funds of economies have a countercyclical effect in our estimation. The analysis depicts a significant economic impact of an interest rate rise on fiscal space: a 10% increase in the public debt–tax base ratio is associated with an upper bound of a 5.6% increase in government-spending procyclicality.