Adaptation Against Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower Generation and Irrigation Supply of Naumure Multipurpose Project, Nepal
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IOE Pulchowk Campus
Abstract
Hydropower serves as a dependable and eco-friendly alternative to fossil fuels and a
carbon-emission-free energy source has a crucial role in addressing climate change, yet
the impacts of climate change on the hydropower project itself cannot be avoided. This
study focuses on the impacts of climate change on hydrological variables (precipitation
and temperature) and its implications for hydropower generation and irrigation supply
in the Naumure Multipurpose Project, and the development of an adaptation strategy
accounting for climate change impacts.
Six different Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6) Global
Climate Models (GCMs) were downscaled, bias-corrected using a linear scaling
method, and then projected for three different periods of future i.e., Near of Future (NF)
period of 2015-2040 AD, Mid of Future (MF) period of 2041-2070 AD and Far of
Future (FF) period of 2071-2100 AD under two different Shared Socio-economic
Pathways (SSPs) scenarios i.e., SSP245 and SSP585 scenario. Projections indicate that
there will be a noteworthy rise in both the maximum and minimum temperatures up to
3.67 °C and 4.97 °C respectively across various periods in the future under both
scenarios. Similarly, precipitation was projected to increase between 13.95% to 90.16%
at different points in the future annually however, seasonally precipitation tends to
decrease in post-monsoon season and increases in pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons
while winter season has no specific trend.
Hydrological model was used to project future discharge and reservoir model was used
to simulate baseline and future energy generation. Flow projection reveals except in
winter season of NF future under scenario SSP245 where flow decreases by up to 23%,
in all other seasons, flow was projected to increase in all future periods. Hydropower
generation was projected to increase up to 18% in futures, except for winter season
where generation decrease by up to 5.8% while irrigation supply is projected to meet
demand in all future under both scenarios.
This slight decrease in energy generation during winter season suggests the need to
adjust the rule curve to maximize winter energy generation while ensuring overall
energy generation and irrigation supply. Eight modified rule curves were developed
and simulated, showing potential for increased winter energy generation. This study
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highlights the need for adaptive measures to mitigate the impact of climate change on
hydropower generation and irrigation supply in the future
Description
It’s no secret that climate change is the hot issue and most discussed topic in modern
world since its impact to the physical environment, biosphere, human life is immense
and threatening. In the hydrologic system, it has notable impacts, affecting water
availability, storage and runoffs in the rivers