Travel Time Reliability of Public Bus Transport: A Case Study of Airport to Narayan Gopal Chowk Route, Kathmandu

Abstract

he issue of less reliability of public transport in Nepal has drawn significant interest of public authorities, policy makers, planners and researchers and efforts are being made to identify alternative solutions. This study aims to assess the major delay factors affecting travel time reliability of public bus transport, specifically within the context of a case study route between Airport and Narayan Gopal Chowk in Kathmandu. Planning time is used as a measure of the travel time reliability and the assessment is conducted through development of a planning time model. Additionally, the study includes a comparative analysis of the travel time reliability among different bus service providers operating on the case study route. On board technique was adopted to collect the data. The comparison of travel time reliability among various bus service providers was conducted using an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) test. The result of ANOVA and post hoc analysis concluded that Khwopa Yatayat has the highest travel time reliability, while Mahanagar Yatayat exhibits the least travel time reliability among the studied four bus service providers at 10% level of significance. Planning time was modelled as a function of the mean travel time and different unexpected delays using the multiple linear regression analysis technique in the SPSS software. Seven different types of unexpected delays i.e., unexpected delay at bus stop, unexpected delay due to stopping at undefined curb stop, unexpected delay at intersection, unexpected delay due to access road, unexpected delay at mid-block due to pedestrian crossing, unexpected delay at mid-block due to u-turning of vehicle, unexpected delay at mid-block due to friction were considered. The final regression model shows that the planning time is significantly dependent on the mean travel time, and unexpected delays i.e., unexpected delay at bus stop, unexpected delay at intersection, unexpected delay due to access road, unexpected delay at mid-block due to friction. The R-square of final model obtained was 0.966. The MAPE value for the developed model was determined to be 8.571 % indicating its potential to predict planning time with high accuracy for selected study route.