Structure and Trend of Tourist Arrival in Nepal (1990-2017)

Abstract

This study entitled “Trend and Structure of Tourist Arrival inNepal 1990-2017” hasbeen carried out for the partial fulfillment of the degree of Master of Arts inEconomics. The study analyzes the Trend and Structure of Tourist Arrival in Nepal.For this purpose secondary data have been collected through Nepal TourismStatistics, Economic survey and related publications. This data have been presentedin tables, figures, graph, percentage and ratio. The trend analysis has been computedto clarify the facts under study. The statistical tests such as Darbin-Watson statistics,F-test, T-test, correlation, regression have been found useful to justify the objectiveunder study. Tourist arrival in Nepal is in increasing trend that with the increase in one yeartourist arrival increase by 19306. The number of tourist arrival in 1990 was254885and in 2000 it becomes 463684 which has increases by 208799 and in 2010 itbecomes 602867 increases by 139183 but in 2017 it becomes 940218 which was alsonot satisfactory because the government aim is to attract 2 million tourist by 2020.The average gender wise trend of tourist arrival shows that 55% of tourist arrivalsare male and remaining 45% of tourist arrivals are female. The shortest length of stayof tourist was recorded 7.92 days in 2002 and the longest day was 13.51 days in theyear 2004, the average length of stay of tourist was recorded just 12 days. The agewise trend of tourist arrival shows that 31to 45 age group has the highest share ineach year followed by the age group 16-30, 46-60 ,61 above and 0-15 respectively.March April of spring season and October andNovember of autumn season thesefour month are peak seasons of tourist coming in Nepal. Most of the tourists visitingNepal come for holiday/pleasure followed by trekking and mountaineering, business,pilgrimage and other purpose. The tourist arrival by mode shows that about 75-80%of tourist arrival through air service and remaining 20-25% come through landtransport. In terms of nationality, the largest number of tourist arrival coming toNepal is from India andother major nationality include China, UK, USA, Sri Lanka,Japan, Germany, France etc. In the fiscal year 2000/01 the total foreign exchangeearnings from tourism is Rs. 11717 million. It reached to 33753 million in fiscal year2017/18 which is less than the earning of the fiscal year 2016/17. The averageexpenditure per visitors US$ ranges from 472.4 in 2000/01 and 902.4 in 2015/16 and v other year liesbetween them. There were 2239 travel agency, 1598 trekking agency,52 rafting agency, 31 tourist transportation service and very few number of tourguide, trekking guide and river guide in fiscal year 2069/70 but in the fiscalyear2074/75they have reached to 3824, 2637, 73,72,3876,1381,230 respectively. Thisshows that trend of number of employment opportunity as well as foreign currencyincreases. The average number of tourist arrival before and after earthquake bymonth wise trend of three years data shows that there is not such a great variation innumber of tourist arrival. In the year of earthquake 2015 there is large fall in touristarrival by 32% but it rises by 40% and 25% in 2016 and 2017 respectively. Thisshows the positive potentiality in the development of tourism industry. Using the regression analysis, it is found that there is positive correlation betweenforeign exchange and number of tourist arrival. The value of R vi 2 is 0.715 implying thatthe predictor number of tourist arrival accounts 71.5% variation in foreign exchangeearnings from tourism. The slope ofregression line of the tourist arrival is 759.706implying that one thousand increase in tourist arrival increases the foreign exchangeearnings by 759.706 million. Similarly, GDP and FEE from tourism are alsopositively correlated. The value of R 2 is 0.897 implying that predicator FEE fromtourism accounts 89% variation in GDP. The slope of FEE from tourism is 41.826which indicate that when FEE from tourism increases by one million GDP increasesby 41.826 million. Similarly, it is found that there is positive correlation between rateof GDP andrate of FEE from tourism. The value of R 2 is 0.784 which indicates that predicator rate of FEE from tourism accounts 78.4% variation in rate of GDP. The slope of rate of FEE from tourism is 38.6% which indicates one percent increase in FEE from tourism increases the GDP by 38.6%. The trend and structure of tourist arrival in Nepal is too low with respect to its high potentiality. For the sustained development of tourism sector government of Nepal as private sector should work combinely and effectively. Maintaining peace full environment within the country and advertising about Nepal in international marketis the most important factor to attract tourist. The development of infrastructure in each and every corner of the country is essential.