Mapping human-elephant conflict hotspots in eastern Chure landscape, Nepal

Abstract

Human-elephant conflict (HEC) is a growing issue that poses a significant conservation challenge within a shared landscape with humans. The identification and prediction of conflict hotspots and the determination of HEC driving factors provide insights to reduce human-elephant conflict and promote the coexistence. This study employed verbal consent based in-person interviews across 255 spatial grid cells, with single respondent interviewed per grid cell, resulting in a total of 255 interviews. A semi-structured questionnaire was used to identify the HEC hotspots in the Eastern Chure Landscape (ECL). Most of the respondents (n = 190), reported experiencing conflicts, while remaining respondents (n =65) reported no conflict incidents in last five years. Logistic regression analysis identified Night Light and Shannon’s Diversity Index (SHDI) as the significant predictors of HEC. Similarly, a Classification and Regression Tree (CART) model also indicated Night Light as the most influential predictor, suggesting that elephants tend to avoid well-lit areas. The study revealed that highly fragmented landscapes with low Effective Mesh Size (MESH) values and low Largest Patch Index (LPI) increases the probability of HEC, focusing the restoration of habitat connectivity. The areas having high population density increased the likelihood of HEC. The performance of the CART model was evaluated using confusion matrix, where the model achieved 76.2% accuracy, 80.80% sensitivity, and 54.5% specificity, in identifying HEC prone areas. To assess the consistency and predictive performance of the CART model, a Random Forest (RF) model was constructed using same response and predictor variables. The RF model achieved 69.8% accuracy, but lower sensitivity (18.8%), and higher specificity (87.2%). The findings highlight that CARTmodel’s performance, particularly in identification of conflict-risk areas, suggesting CART model a reliable tool for HEC risk prediction. HEC hotspots map identified Morang, particularly in Letang, Kerabari, and Miklajung and areas of Jhapa, including Mechinagar and Shivasataxi, are the major HEC hotspots in Eastern Chure Landscape (ECL), indicating the requirement of site-specific mitigation strategies. Therefore, restoration of traditional and degraded elephant migratory routes, and lights should be installed as deterrents to ensure minimal human-elephant encounters