International Air Passenger Demand Modeling and Airport Choice Modeling in Nepal
Date
2023-12
Authors
Luitel, Nishub
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
I.O.E. Pulchowk Campus
Abstract
Air travel demand forecasting is an important task for the concerned civil aviation authority
as well as airlines. This paper intends to analyze and forecast international air travel demand
in Nepal and apportion the demand between TIA, the only existing international airport of
Nepal and the other proposed international airports. Econometric variables like GDP, CPI,
remittance, employment migration, tourist arrivals, exchange rates, GDP per capita, net
national income per capita, world GDP etc were taken as an explanatory variable for the
demand generated in aviation industry. A regression model was developed using above
mentioned variables as explanatory variable. The statistical result showed almost perfect
correlation between themselves, as suggested by variance inflation factor (VIF) value which
made the model biased in terms of coefficients. Furthermore, several models considering
different combinations of independent variables were developed. Finally a regression model
considering exchange rate, number of labour permit, number of tourist arrival as explanatory
variable showed satisfactory result and was taken as demand model for the forecast.
Description
Airport choice model between the existing Tribhuwan international airport and the proposed
Nijgadh international airport for international air passengers was developed. Airport access
time, airport access cost and announced delay at the airport was taken as attributes to define
the characteristics of airport. Binary logistic regression was performed to the data collected
from passenger survey taken at the check in of Tribhuwan international airport. Announced
delay was found to be the most significant variable while other variables airport access time
and airport access cost were statistically significant but had lesser impact.
Keywords
Demand modelling,, SP survey,, Airport choice model,