Drought and Forced Migration in the Mahabharat Shadow Range: A Case of Ramechhap, Nepal

Abstract

The study focused on analyzing the "Drought and Forced Migration in the Mahabharat Shadow Range: A Case of Ramechhap District, Nepal." The drought is also one of the most significant consequences of climate change, which has impacted agricultural livelihoods in rural areas of Nepal. Therefore, the study focused on assessing the effects of drought frequency and intensity on agrarian livelihoods, examining the role of drought as a primary factor influencing forced migration among local households, and analyzing the socio economic impactsof drought-induced migration on households that migrated. Hence, to measure these objectives, a quantitative research design has been employed through a household survey using a structured questionnaire. The data were collected from Ward No. 4 of Khandadevi Rural Municipality, Ramechhap District, Nepal, from a sample of 197 household respondents. The data were collected using the Kobocollect application between July 10 and 20, 2025, totaling 207. The study findings indicate that recurrent droughts every year statistically significantly (p <.001) influenced household major crop production, with 91.8 percent of household respondents reporting a decline due to scarcity of irrigation water, pests, and diseases. Besides, the animal husbandry business, household food supply, income generation, and school attendance of children have also been severely affected due to drought and its resulting migration. Among the total household respondents, 43.5 percent of households experienced family member migration due to the impacts of drought on the agricultural system. Also, 59.9 percent of respondents reported forced migration. Meanwhile, bivariate and multivariate analyses revealed a statistically significant association (p < .001) between drought severity level, high farming costs, and type of migration. Household respondents facing severe drought are 7.78 times more likely to migrate forcibly. The destination of migration has a significant effect (p < .001) on school attendance among children and increases social and family responsibilities among households with migrant members. This study concludes that drought is not only an environmental stressor or a result of climate change, but it is also a significant contributing factor to livelihood stress, forced migration, and social change. The findings suggest developing an integrated plan to address drought preparedness and mitigate the risk of frequent drought in the local area. Also, invest in exploring climate-resilient agricultural technologies and diversifying agricultural patterns and cycles.