IMPACT OF INTEREST RATE ON STOCK MARKET PREDICTION IN NEPAL
Date
2024
Authors
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Journal ISSN
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Publisher
Shanker Dev Campus
Abstract
This study examined the impact of interest rate (deposit interest, lending interest, bank
rate and T-bills rate) on share market in Nepal. This study is based on descriptive and
causal comparative research design. The population is based on NEPSE index and
different interest rate like: bank rate, deposit rate, lending rate, short term interest rate.
In this study sample for the study included different interest rate like bank rate, deposit
rate, lending rate, short-term interest rate and NEPSE index of each fiscal years starting
from mid July 2012 to mid-July 2023 of 11 years. The study has based on secondary
data in nature. These data are analyzed through excel and SPSS. Descriptive,
Correlation and Regression analysis were used to explain the relationship between the
interest rate variables and NEPSE index. The correlation analysis revealed that the
NEPSE Index exhibits varied relationships with the different financial rates. Notably, a
positive correlation was observed with the Weighted Average Treasury Bill Rate,
suggesting that increases in Treasury Bill rates are associated with higher values in the
NEPSE Index. On the other hand, significant negative correlations were found with the
Weighted Average Deposit Rate, Weighted Average Lending Rate, and discount Rate.
The results show that the Weighted Average Treasury Bill Rate positively influences
the NEPSE Index, meaning higher Treasury Bill rates lead to higher stock market
values. In contrast, the Weighted Average Deposit Rate, Weighted Average Lending
Rate, and discount Rate each have significant negative effects on the NEPSE Index.
Specifically, increases in these rates are associated with declines in stock market
performance. These findings shows the importance of financial rates in stock market
dynamics and their implications for both investors and policymakers. Investors can use
this knowledge to make informed strategic decisions and manage risks, while
policymakers can craft policies that either stabilize or stimulate the stock market by
adjusting financial rates in response to changing economic conditions. The statistically
significant relationships revealed in the analysis emphasize the robustness of the results
and their relevance for understanding the interactions between financial indicators and
stock market behavior.