“Changing Climate-Induced Hazards and Socio-Economic Vulnerabilities in Lower Karnali Watershed Region, Bardiya”

Abstract

This thesis study entitled “Changing Climate Induced Hazards and Socio- Economic Vulnerabilities in Lower Karnali Watershed Region Bardiya”. Climate change has emerged as a critical global challenge, disproportionately affecting vulnerable communities that rely on climate-sensitive livelihoods. The Lower Karnali Watershed Region, particularly Geruwa-3 and Madhuwan-2, has been increasingly experiencing climate-induced hazards such as floods, droughts, river erosion, and heatwaves. These environmental changes have intensified socio-economic vulnerabilities, particularly among indigenous Tharu and Dalit communities, whose livelihoods depend primarily on agriculture and natural resources. Women face compounded challenges due to their responsibility for securing water, food, and household resources, making them more susceptible to economic instability and health risks. This study aims to assess the most frequent climate hazards affecting the region, analyze their socio-economic impacts on indigenous and marginalized communities, and explore the barriers faced by these populations, particularly women, in adapting to climate change. Using a mixed-methods approach, the research incorporates both qualitative and quantitative data collection techniques, including surveys, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions. Findings reveal that climate variability has led to decreased agricultural productivity, water scarcity, displacement, and increased livelihood insecurities. Despite the presence of traditional adaptation strategies, such as community-led irrigation and rotational water distribution, these measures are becoming less effective due to the increasing severity of climate events. Furthermore, the study highlights the inadequacy of current government disaster management programs, which suffer from poor implementation, lack of accessibility, and weak institutional coordination. The research underscores the urgent need for climate-resilient policies that integrate both scientific advancements and indigenous knowledge systems. Without immediate and targeted interventions, climate-induced hazards will continue to threaten the socio-economic stability and environmental sustainability of the Lower Karnali region. This study contributes to the growing body of research on climate vulnerability and resilience, offering practical insights for policymakers, development practitioners, and local communities striving to build a more sustainable and adaptive future.