Energy Demand Modelling and Emission Forecasting for the Penetration of E-mobility in Sudurpaschim Province

Abstract

This thesis paper focuses on the development of future energy demand and emissions projections for the road transport sector in Sudurpaschim Province of Nepal, spanning from 2022 to 2050. This analysis utilizes the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) modeling framework and explores three distinct policy strategies: Business As Usual (BAU), Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Scenario and Long Term Strategy (LTS) Scenario. In 2022, passenger travel demand stood at 3.89 billion passenger kilometers, but it is anticipated to surge to more than 11.77 billion passenger-kilometers by 2050. Similarly, freight transport demand is expected to grow from 1.84 billion ton-kilometers in 2022 to 3.25 billion ton-kilometers by 2050. To meet these escalating transportation demands, the total final energy consumption (TFES) must increase from 2.59 PJ to 7.34 PJ, primarily relying on imported fossil fuels, with an annual growth rate of 3.78% from 2022 to 2050 under a business-as-usual scenario. During this period, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are projected to rise from 111.7 thousand MT of CO2 equivalent to in 2022 to 258.8 thousand MT of CO2 equivalent by 2050, representing a 3.41% annual growth rate. However, under the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) scenario, the total final energy consumption (TFES) must increase from 2.59 PJ to 3.7 PJ, primarily relying on electricity as a major fuel, with an annual growth rate of 1.32% from 2022 to 2050