Coercive Diplomacy: A Study of Sanction Politics in Nepal-India RelationsPant

Abstract

The study titled “Coercive Diplomacy: A Study of Sanction Politics in Nepal India Relations” investigates the underlying causes, mechanisms, and consequences of India's coercive diplomacy toward Nepal in 2015. It examines how these coercive measures were communicated and perceived, and assesses their effectiveness in achieving India's strategic objectives. This research aims to contribute to the academic discourse on coercive diplomacy and provide insights into the dynamics of power and influence in bilateral relations. This study adopts a post-positivist approach to explore the causes and consequences of India's coercive diplomacy against Nepal in 2015, balancing objective reality with subjective interpretations of state behavior and perceptions. Using both inductive and deductive methods, the research investigates the complex socio-political context of the 2015 blockade through primary and secondary data sources. In-depth interviews with 10 key stakeholders, including policymakers and diplomats, provided valuable insights, while official government documents, diplomatic correspondence, and media reports from both India and Nepal were analyzed to understand public discourse. The study also reviews six academic articles on the topic for broader context. The study finds that India's coercive measures in 2015 included diplomatic, economic, and psychological tactics, aimed at influencing Nepal's political decisions without escalating into full conflict. The restriction of essential goods created insecurity and psychological pressure, signaling India's intent to politically isolate Nepal and assert its influence over the country's internal affairs. By leveraging power and exploiting ethnic tensions, India sought to align Nepal‟s policies with its strategic interests, demonstrating the effectiveness of psychological coercion in coercive diplomacy. Despite India‟s pressure, Nepal proceeded with its constitution, leading to strained relations and a blockade. India used a mix of negotiations and threats, leveraging its regional dominance and geopolitical interests to influence Nepal‟s internal affairs. Economic interdependence, particularly Nepal's reliance on India for energy, played a crucial role, with the 2015 blockade causing severe shortages. This highlighted Nepal's need to diversify energy sources for better security. The sanctions resulted from both internal and external factors, including Nepalese political actors seeking external support and India‟s influence in Nepal‟s politics. The blockade, criticized as a diplomatic blunder, further strained Nepal-India relations and raised concerns over Nepal‟s sovereignty.. India's coercive diplomacy against Nepal involved both direct and indirect methods, using political, diplomatic, and economic pressure to push Nepal into amending its constitution. However, mixed messages and ineffective communication drew criticism and damaged India's regional reputation. The blockade highlighted India's desire to influence Nepal, particularly on the issue of marginalized groups' representation. India's strategy included incremental concessions, such as easing the blockade and engaging in negotiations, but was also motivated by the need to protect its international image and counter Nepal's growing ties with China. Although relations were restored, the blockade fuelled anti-Indian sentiments in Nepal, leading to a more cautious and confrontational approach. The economic impact of the blockade further solidified India's coercive tactics, worsening bilateral ties..