ENERGY FORECASTING AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN NEPAL
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I.O.E. Pulchowk Campus
Abstract
The transportation sector in Nepal is heavily reliant on imported fossil fuels, which is
costly and polluting. The increasing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is likely to put
unnecessary stress on the existing electrical infrastructure. The study focuses on the
forecasting the energy and electricity demand in Nepal due to increasing adoption of
the electric vehicles. The survey was designed based on the Krejices Morgans sampling
method and a total of 555 sample were taken. Based on the outcomes of the survey, the
overall energy consumption in transportation sector in 2022 was estimated to be 64.92
PJ out of which diesel accounted for the 39.27 PJ, followed by petrol at 25.28 PJ and
electricity consumption at 0.08 PJ.
Description
The base year energy demand was forecasted based on the service demand projection
methodology. Based on the historical trend of energy use in transportation sector along
with the plans and policies of the Government of Nepal three scenarios, namely
business as usual (BAU), sustainable development (SD) and net zero emission (NZE),
were prepared. The BAU scenario reflects historical trends in vehicle usage in Nepal
and under the scenario overall energy demand has been expected to increase to 92.41
PJ by 2030 and 180.46 PJ by 2050.