Current future potential distribution of sarus crane (Grus antigone) in Nepal using ensemble modelling
Date
2023
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Department of Zoology
Abstract
Climate change have a significant impacts on the geographic distribution and
composition of species across time and space, but little is known about how they
affect wetland birds. Therefore, this study was conducted to address the impacts of
climate change on the distribution of Sarus Crane across Nepal. Species occurrence
and nest location data were collected from the field through direct observation. The
current and future potential distribution of the species was identified using ensemble
modelling. The model predicted approximately 4.52% (6,659 km
xii
2
) of total Nepal area
under current distribution. The suitable area was predicted mostly in western Nepal.
Maximum range expansion was found up to 17.33% (12, 2513 km
2
) for the
distribution under SSP5-8.5 scenarios for 2090. The range expansion for the
distribution of species is expected to occur almost entire lowland and some Siwalik
regions of Nepal by the end of century. Also, the presence of nesting site relies
heavily on the waterbody and agricultural marshland. The findings of this research
suggests that agricultural and wetland areas should be managed properly for the
conservation of Sarus Crane in Nepal.
Description
Keywords
Geographic distribution, Bioclimatic variables, Sarus crane species, Climate change